1.  Stalker-ish sellers.  I know you think you’re being helpful, walking the buyer through your home and pointing out the wagon-wheel light fixture you made with your own two hands, the custom mural of a stingray you paid top dollar to have painted across your living room wall and the way the sounds of happy schoolchildren running across the front yard of your corner lot to get to the school in the next block lifts your spirits.  However, the buyers might be trying really hard to ignore, minimize or figure out how to undo the very features of your home you hold dear.  They also may want or need to have personal space and conversations with their mate or their agent while they’re viewing your home - you being there, especially walking right alongside them while they’re in your home, prevents them from being comfortable about doing this, or discussing all the things they would change if the home were theirs. In my experience, the more nitpicky a buyer gets about a house and the more detailed their list of things they would change, the more serious they are about considering making an offer on this place.

What’s a Seller to do? Back off. Let your home be shown vacant, or leave the house when people come to see it.  If you need to be there, at least walk outside or go sit at the coffee shop down the way while prospective buyers view your home.  If the buyers have questions, their people will contact your people.

2. Shabby, dirty, crowded and/or smelly houses.  You already know this one. Yet, buyers constantly marvel. The buyers who come to see your home are making the decision whether to choose your home for the biggest purchase they’ve ever made during the worst economic conditions most of them have ever experienced.  Your job is to get your home noticed – favorably – above the sea of other homes on the market, many of which are priced very, very low. 

What’s a Seller to do?  Other than listing your home at a competitive price, the only tool within your control for differentiating your home from all the foreclosures and short sales is to show it in tip-top shape. Pre-pack your place up, getting rid of as many of your personal effects as possible. Do not show it without it being completely cleaned up: no laundry or dishes piled up, countertops freshly washed, smelly dogs (I have a couple who smell on occasion – no judgment – but don’t show your house with pet odors) or litter boxes cleaned and/or out of the house.

3.  Irrational seller expectations (i.e., overpricing).  Buying a house on today’s market is hard work!  On top of all the research and analysis about the market and situating their own lives to be sure they’ll be able to afford the place for 5, 7, 10 years - or longer, buyers have to work overtime to separate the real estate wheat from the chaff, get educated about short sales and foreclosures and often put in many, many offers before they get even a single one accepted.  The last thing they want to add to their task lists is trying to argue a seller out of unreasonable expectations or pricing.  And, in fact, there are so many other homes on the market, buyers don’t have to do this.  When they see a home whose seller is clearly clueless about their home’s value and has priced it sky-high, most often they won’t bother even looking at it.  If they love it, they’ll wait for it to sit on the market for awhile, hoping the market will “educate you” into desperation, priming the pump for a later, lowball offer.

What’s a Seller to do? Get real. Get out there and look at the other properties that are for sale in your area and price range. Get multiple agents’ take on what your home should be listed at, and don’t take it personally if their recommendation is low. If your home has much less curb appeal or space or is much less upgraded than the house across the way, don’t list it at the same price and expect it to sell. If you owe more than your home is realistically worth, you may need to reexamine whether you really want or need to sell, or consider a short sale, if you simply have to sell.  Don’t be tempted into testing your market with an obviously too-high price, unless you’re prepared to have your home lag on the market and get lowball offers.

4.  Feeling misled. Here’s the deal.  You will never trick someone into buying your home. If the listing pics are photo-edited within an inch of their lives, or your home is described as an “approved” short sale when, in fact, the bank approved another offer, now withdrawn, but will require a new offer to go through any sort of approval process (even a truncated one), buyers will learn this information at some point.  If your neighborhood is described as funky and vibrant, as code for the fact that your house is under the train tracks and you live in between a wrecking yard and a biker bar, prospects will figure this out.  If the detailed information about your home, neighborhood or even transactional position (e.g., short sale status, seller financing, etc.) is misrepresented, the sheer misrepresentation will turn otherwise interested buyers off.  If you authorize your agent to “verbally approve” the buyer’s offer, don’t go back the next day demanding an extra $5,000. In cases where the buyer feels misled, whether or not that was your intention, running through the buyer’s mind is this question: If they can’t trust you to be honest about this, how can they trust you to be honest about everything else? 

What’s a Seller to do?  Buyers rely on sellers to be upfront and honest – so be both.  If your home has features or aspects that are often perceived negatively, your home’s listing probably shouldn’t lead with them (like the ad I recently saw with the intro line: “this place is a mess!”), but neither should you go out of your way to slant or skew or spin the facts which will be obvious to anyone who visits your home.  Make sure you know what the listing of your home reads like, before it’s published to the web, and that a prospective buyer will not feel misled by it.

5. New, ugly home improvements.  Many a buyer has walked into a house that has clearly been remodeled and upgraded in anticipation of the sale, only to have their heart sink with the further realization that the brand-spanking-new kitchen features a countertop made, not of Carerra marble, but brand-new, pink tiles with a kitty cat in the middle of each one (I saw this once, people – no joke).  Or the pristine, just-installed floors feature carpet in a creamy shade of blue – the buyer’s least favorite color.  New home improvements that run totally counter to a buyer’s aesthetics are a big turn-off, because in today’s era of Conspicuous Frugality, buyers just can’t cotton to ripping out expensive, brand new, perfectly functioning things just on the basis of style – especially since they’ll feel like they paid for these things in the price of the home.

What’s a Seller to do?  Check in with a local broker or agent before you make a big investment in a pre-sale remodel.  They can give you a reality check about the likely return on your investment, and help you prioritize about which projects to do (or not).  Instead of spending $40,000 on a new, less-than-attractive kitchen, they might encourage you to update appliances, have the cabinets painted and spend a few grand on your curb appeal.  Many times, they will also help you do the work of selecting neutral finishes that will work for the largest possible range of buyer tastes.

6.  CRAZY listing photos (or no photos at all).  I’ve seen listing photos that have dumpsters parked in front of the house, piles of laundry all over the “hardwood” floors touted in the listing description, and once, even the family dog doing his or her business in the lovely green front yard.  Listing pictures that have put your home in anything but its best, accurate light are a very quick way to ensure that you turn off a huge number of buyers from even coming to see your house!   The only bigger buyer turn-off than these bizarre listing pics are listings that have no photos at all; most buyers on today’s market see a listing with no pictures and click right on past it, without giving the place a second glance. Photos are a sellers best tool to get buyers to have enough interest to want to make an appointment and come inside.

What’s a Seller to do?  Check your home’s listing online and make sure that the pics represent your home well.  If not, ask your agent to grab some new shots and get them online (and say pretty please, pretty please!).

Keep in mind also that President Obama has stated that he wants to turn over FHA and Fannie Mae to the private sector and get government out of the mortgage business. This will cause interest rate to go considerably higher. No matter how you feel about the President these changes will cost you money. I think it will take the rest of this year if not longer to make this change but the new MIP is going into effect in April.

If you are considering a home purchase you may want to speed up the process. Prices are down, interest rates are near all time lows. These conditions won't last forever. Call me to see how you can get going on your home purchase and beat the increases.

Make it a great day!

In its latest real estate and economic forecast, the National Association of Realtors anticipates that sales of existing homes, after falling 4.8 percent in 2010, will rise 7.9 percent this year, to 5.3 million, and another 4.5 percent in 2012, to 5.53 million.

The median price of existing homes, meanwhile, rose 0.3 percent in 2010 after a 12.9 percent drop in 2009, and is expected to rise 0.5 percent this year, to $173,800, and another 2.4 percent in 2012, to $177,900.

Sales of new single-family homes are expected to rebound faster, rising 17.7 percent this year, to 374,000 sales, after a 15.5 percent drop in 2010, and then rising 51.1 percent in 2012, to 565,000 sales. In an earlier forecast, released last month, NAR anticipated that sales of new single-family homes would climb 20.8 percent in 2011 and 30.9 percent in 2012.

The new-home median price rose 2.2 percent in 2010 and is expected to climb 1.8 percent this year, to $224,700, and 1.9 percent in 2012, to $229,000.

NAR expects that 30-year-fixed mortgage rates will average 5.1 percent this year, up from 4.7 percent in 2010, and rise to 5.9 percent in 2012.

December’s sales were up 5.9 percent from November’s revised figure of 491,590 but were down 6.8 percent from the revised 558,840 of December 2009.

The unsold inventory index for existing, single-family detached homes was 5 months in December, down from 6.2 months in November but up from 3.8 months in December 2009. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

In the Shasta County area activity was slow in the month of December. But January is off to the races. I have not seen some much activity in the last two years. The phones are ringing and the home buyers are out in force looking at and making offers on homes. With interest rates at near all time lows and home prices down to where they were 10 years ago its no wonder that home buyers are trying to get in on the good deals before the interest rates head north and effectively increase their housing costs. My advise is to start shopping now to find the best deals for you.

Stiff Penalty Likely For Strategic Default By Affluent Homeowners

HOME LOANS, INDUSTRY NEWS
December 20th, 2010

A strategic default is defined as a homeowner who is capable of making their mortgage payment but elects to let the property go into foreclosure because the mortgage is underwater or the property is no longer wanted. Second homes and rental properties are examples of properties purchased by affluent property owners which are likely to be let go if they owe more than they’re worth in today’s market.

A recent article in THE NEW YORK TIMES claims homeowners who decide to stop making payments on a property they no longer wish to keep could be denied a new mortgage for 7-10 years. Not only will their credit be damaged for a lengthy period of time, they could put themselves in a situation where the lender is suing them for the amount of money owed or  lost (termed a deficiency) by the bank. Laws allowing a lender to pursue an owner for a loan loss vary from state to state.

In so-called “recourse”states, the lender may go after the home owner’s assets including their primary residence. Maine, New Jersey and Hawaii are examples of recourse states.

In “non-recourse”states, a lender must look only to the value of the subject property to satisfy the outstanding mortgage balance if they take the property through foreclosure, deed-in-lieu of foreclosure or agree to a short sale. However, these laws may only protect the homeowner if the loans were used to purchase the property as the borrower’s primary residence. Refinance, Home Equity Lines of Credit or loans on second homes and investment properties may not have this protection from pursuit for deficiency losses by the lender(s). Florida, Connecticut and Arizona fall into this category.

California, along with Idaho and New York, fall into a third category referred to as “single-action” states which allows the lender to foreclose on the owner or file a civil lawsuit for the full loan amount. I have heard this referred to as judicial or non-judicial foreclosure.  Most foreclosures in California are non-judicial and can be accomplished in 4-6 months from start to finish. However, if the lender believes the seller has substantial assets or has intentionally damaged the security through vandalism or stripping the property of fixtures, they may pursue a judicial foreclosure which allows a judge to award a deficiency judgement.

Anyone considering a strategic default should consult with an attorney to discuss potential consequences legally and financially before stopping payments to their lender(s). Since every home owner’s financial situation is unique, consulting with a qualified expert is critical to determine the best course of action to unload an unwanted property.

August 30, 2010—Are more Americans positioning themselves for home purchase? Although May’s data showed that home sales were down 26.8% as the home buyer tax credit concluded, a new survey conducted by Relocation.com suggests some families are opting for renting while they research—cash in hand—for deals on a new, more desirable home in their area.

Among the key findings of the survey: Of the 60% of individuals moving into rentals, 24% were previous homeowners who are renting temporarily while they look for a new home to purchase. Underscoring this finding is the fact that for many of these families, foreclosure was not the reason for moving—in fact, the number of consumers who moved due to foreclosure dropped by 70%.

Furthermore, many of these families stayed in the area (one in three made a short distance move of 100 miles or less), opting to remain in a location where they already know their schools, shopping districts and prime neighborhoods.

“While the housing market continues to flux from month to month, we’re seeing strong, continued interest as consumers looking to move start their research with us,” said Relocation.com Chairman and Founder Sharon Asher. “These findings suggest that more Americans may be poised to re-enter the housing market this year.”

The Relocation.com survey was conducted in early June 2010 and is a continuation of consumer surveys conducted since March 2009 to gauge moving and relocation attitudes and behaviors.

After foreclosure: How long until you can buy again?

By Les Christie, staff writer May 28, 2010: 7:58 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Walking away from a mortgage you can still afford to pay has consequences; everyone knows that. Your credit score is shot and it can be impossible to get credit.

Some homeowners, no doubt, believe that the credit score hit is worth getting out from a deeply underwater mortgage. They may owe, say, $500,000 when their house value is only valued at $350,000. And, they figure, there's no way it will ever be worth what they owe so it's better to get out from underneath the burden.

After default, they reason, they can raise their FICO scores by paying all their bills on time and eventually finance another home purchase.

Don't count on it.

While homeowners who default due to economic hardship, such as a job loss or divorce, normally must wait two to five years before buying a home again, walkaways may face double that time.

"It could be well over seven or eight years before [walkaways] are able to obtain a mortgage to buy a home again," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

How foreclosure impacts your credit score

"Credit scores are only one component of a complete credit decision," Brinkmann said. "[In these cases] credit scores are not a good indicator of their willingness to continue to pay their mortgage."

But future underwriters will scrutinize their records very closely, and if they find no precipitating factors leading to the defaults -- no job loss, no health issues --the repaired credit score won't overshadow the black mark of a walkaway.

"If you made a strategic decision to default on paying your mortgage, it will work against you," said Bill Merrell of the National Association of Review Appraisers and Mortgage Underwriters.

Merrell, who teaches underwriting, said banks are looking at several factors in determining whether to grant mortgages: the amount of money borrowers have in the bank; employment histories; payment history.  However, banks may be far more lenient if the default resulted from factors somewhat beyond the borrower's control, such as from local economic problems. "They'll give you more consideration if it's job related," he said. But, he added, banks look at strategic defaults "very negatively."

That said, it's not impossible to get a loan. Banks still want to make interest payments, so they might be willing to gamble with a walkaway.

"It might be a little more difficult for them to borrow, but [banks'] drive for market share -- to profit from making loans -- will trump that caution," said Keith Gumbinger, of the mortgage information publisher HSH Associates. "I don't think we'll see a full denial."

It's hard to foresee the state of mortgage lending six or seven months from now, let alone seven or eight years into the future. So lenders may look at applications from one-time strategic defaulters and say, "Yes, they walked away but it's a whole different market now," according to Gumbinger.

Even so, lenders may require more from borrowers who walked away than those who didn't.

"To the extent they could get a mortgage," said Brinkmann, "they can count on needing a heavy down payment."

The lenders may ask for 30% down or more. That would provide enough collateral cushion that the bank could get all or most of its money back in a foreclosure.

Strategic defaulters might also be charged higher interest rates, even above the levels other borrowers with similar credit scores would receive.

Distressed homeowners no longer have to pay California state income tax on debt forgiven in a short sale, foreclosure, or loan modification.  Enacted into law yesterday, Senate Bill 401 generally aligns California's tax treatment of mortgage debt relief income with federal law.  For debt forgiven on a loan secured by a "qualified principal residence," borrowers will now be exempt from both federal and state income tax consequences.  The existing federal exemption is for indebtedness up to $2 million, whereas the new California exemption is for indebtedness up to $800,000 and forgiven debt up to $500,000.

"Qualified principal residence" indebtedness is defined as debt incurred in acquiring, constructing, or substantially improving a principal residence.  It includes both first and second trust deeds.  It also includes a refinance loan to the extent the funds were used to payoff a previous loan that would have qualified.

The tax breaks apply to debts discharged from 2009 through 2012.  Californians who have already filed their 2009 tax returns may claim the exemption by filing a Form 540X amendment.
 
Taxpayers who do not qualify for the above exemptions (e.g., second home or rental property) may nevertheless be exempt under other provisions.  Most notably, taxpayers who are bankrupt are exempt from debt relief income tax.  Also, taxpayers who are insolvent are exempt from debt relief income tax to the extent their current liabilities exceed current assets.

For more information about mortgage forgiveness tax consequences, go to California Franchise Tax Board's Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Extended webpage and the Internal Revenue Service's Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation webpage.  The full text of Senate Bill 401 is available at www.leginfo.ca.gov. 

Freddie Mac reports a jump in 30-year fixed mortgage interest to 5.21 percent for the week of April 8 from 5.08 percent the prior week. Rates are climbing now that the Federal Reserve has ended its campaign to lower borrowing costs and the economy is starting to pick up.

Here’s how other rates fared:

• The 15-year fixed rate climbed to 4.52 percent from 4.39 percent.
• The five-year adjustable rate rose to 4.25 percent from 4.1 percent.
• The one-year ARM edged up to 4.14 percent from 4.05 percent.

Source: Buffalo News, Alan Zibel (04/09/10)

• Northeast: the index rose 9.0 percent to 77.7 in February and is 18.9 percent higher than February 2009.

• Midwest: jumped 21.8 percent to 97.9 and is 18.7 percent above a year ago.

• South: increased 9.2 percent to an index of 107.0, and the index is 17.5 percent higher than February 2009.

• West: the index fell 4.8 percent to 98.0 but is 14.6 percent above a year ago.

Source: NAR

To read the full story, please click here:   

"Shasta County home values have hit the bottom, economist David Gallo told a gathering of community leaders Wednesday in Redding - an opinion borne out by median sales prices, which were up for the third straight month.

"Don't you already see some signs of that in Redding?" Gallo said of a housing recovery during a two-hour presentation at the McConnell Foundation. "I think if mortgage rates and points remain at current levels, we can expect to see rising home values within a year."

Gallo's forecast is based in part on the trend line of inflation-adjusted home values in Shasta County that he's tracked since 1999. The actual median value of homes in Shasta County has never dipped below the trend line - until recently.

"I've concluded housing prices have bottomed out," Gallo said.

Gallo's prediction came as statistics released this week by DataQuick Information Systems show the median sales price of a home in Shasta County in August rose for the third month in a row. The median is the price where half the homes sold for more and the other half for less.

DataQuick reported that the median sales price in August was $201,250, up from $190,000 in July. The median sales price in August 2008 was $225,000.

Home values in Shasta County bottomed out for the year in March when the median sales price plunged to $177,000.

The median sales price in Shasta County peaked in March 2006, when it reached $300,000.

But while values are up, home sales in Shasta County in August dipped to 148, down from 180 in July, and were at their lowest level since April, when there were 131 closed escrows.

It's a sign that the area's housing market is still somewhat volatile.

Told of Gallo's forecast, two north state real estate agents said values have stabilized in some price ranges, namely for homes priced below $250,000, where multiple offers aren't uncommon."

Freddie Mac reported the following for other rates for the week:

• 15-year mortgage rates: averaged 4.68 percent, down from last week's 4.81 percent. Last year at this time: 5.64 percent.
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 5.04 percent this week, a drop from last week's 5.23 percent. Last year at this time: 5.37 percent
• 1-year ARMs: averaged 4.8 percent, down from last week's 4.94 percent. Last year at this time: 4.98 percent

"Mortgage rates followed bond yields lower this week as recent economic reports suggest the economy is still slowing, which reduces the future threat of inflation," says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.

Source: Freddie Mac(02/19/09)

The use of mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration is soaring in the Capital Region, growth that comes as many home buyers are struggling to qualify for more traditional loans. Many lenders, skittish as foreclosure and default rates rise, have discontinued mortgages for borrowers with less-than-perfect credit or little saved for a down payment.

Credit standards for FHA loans, by contrast, are more relaxed. And while many loans now require that borrowers put 20% down, FHA loans mandate just 3.5%.

“Most of the programs with minimal down payments have all gone away,” said Lisa Fortin, a senior mortgage consultant at First Priority Mortgage, a RealtyUSA subsidiary in Clifton Park. “FHA is pretty much the only product still available.”

First Priority says FHA loans grew from about 8% of mortgages it originated in 2007 to about 40% today. Other brokers and lenders in the Capital Region report similar upticks.

And national numbers show the same trend: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development says FHA loans accounted for just 3.7% of all home loans in its 2006 fiscal year, when subprime and other mortgage products for lower-income buyers were widely available.

But by September, with the credit crunch taking hold, the percentage of home loans backed by the FHA was 21.1%, according to HUD. (September is the most recent month for which the agency has data.)

In raw numbers, the FHA backed 141,000 mortgages in September, about three time the number of a year earlier.

Observers say FHA loans have largely shed the stigma they once had as a loan of last resort for those with lower incomes or shaky credit.

Also, said Sandra Nardoci, president of the Greater Capital Association of Realtors Inc. and an agent at Prudential manor Homes in Latham, the FHA program “used to be a lot more cumbersome than it is today.”

In a sense, the rising popularity of FHA loans during a widespread economic crisis is apt, because the program was created during the Great Depression in an attempt to boost stagnant real estate markets.

Today, the loans are available for as much as $292,100 in most of the Capital Region, or $373,950 for a two-unit property. Borrowers must also take out mortgage insurance-money that helps fund the program.

The FHA does not originate the loans. Instead, it insures them against default, making them a safer bet for lenders.

The loans, which are also available for refinancing, are widely used by first-time borrowers, including many who are now eager to take advantage of the drop in real estate prices in recent months.

“People who get into these mortgages are thrilled to death,” said First Priority’s Fortin. “It’s a great way to get into a home.”

FHA loans do have drawbacks, including the mortgage insurance requirement and interest rates that are generally higher than those available for other loans.

“It’s not the cheapest product out there,” said Therese Raco, an Albany-based administrative vice president at M&T Bank, where FHA loans now account for about 35% of Capital Region mortgages.

“But it’s an option if you’re not qualifying for other loans,” Raco added. “It’s an avenue for home ownership.”

On the rise

Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration are growing in popularity because of the credit crunch. Use of the loans grew rapidly as other types of mortgage credit became more difficult to obtain.

Time period FHA loan market share

Fiscal year 2006 3.7%
Oct. 2007 6.4%
Jan. 2008 7.9%
April 2008 13%
July 2008 17.1%
Sept. 2008 21.1%

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Copyright © 2009, Albany Times Union, N.Y.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

RISMEDIA, January 16, 2009-(MCT)-Every day, more people slip into the foreclosure whirlpool and spiral downward toward the day they may have to leave their home. What should you do if you are on the verge of getting a foreclosure notice?

First and foremost, industry specialists say, you should resist the natural human tendency to freeze up. Face the issue head on and prepare for days and weeks of making phone calls and corresponding with people who may be able to help.
“Don’t assume it’s too late to act,” said Ralph Roberts, a consumer advocate in Michigan and co-author of Foreclosure Self-Defense for Dummies. “As long as you are residing in the home, you probably have some opportunity to keep your home.”

Roberts, a Realtor who lost his home to foreclosure back in the 1970s, said people facing foreclosure have more avenues to pursue than they might realize-certainly more than the typical “pay up or move out” that many people think is their only choice.

Potential solutions include:

- Negotiating a modification of the loan.
- Refinancing the loan.
- Listing the home through an agent for a possible “short sale.”
- Selling the home to an investor on your own.
- Declaring bankruptcy.

Short sales-in which the lender agrees to take less than is owed on the home, writing off some or all of the loss to avoid the expense of a foreclosure-typically are handled by real estate agents, which at least takes some of the pressure off of a harried homeowner. Many professional real estate agents are working more short sales these days and have buyers lined up looking for bargains, though the process can be slow and frustrating.

“The banks are just not moving fast enough. They are sitting on these, and it’s outrageous. Something’s got to be done about that” at the national level, said Ernst Urbainczyk, a veteran agent with Keller Williams Heritage Realty in Lake Mary, Fla. Lenders may also reject short-sale offers, sometimes leaving the seller with little or no time to prevent the foreclosure.

Matthew Englett of Kaufman Englett & Lynd, an Altamonte Springs, Fla., law firm that specializes in foreclosure defense, real estate litigation and bankruptcy, said there are usually several different defenses a borrower can take to dispute a foreclosure, including “wrongful or misleading conduct on behalf of the lender or its agents.”

As the case moves forward, the law firm negotiates with the lender to try to get it to modify the mortgage with a lower interest rate and loan amount.

“In many cases, that would mean the principal would have to be reduced,” Englett said. The law firm charges a flat fee ranging from $1,750 to $2,500 for its foreclosure-defense cases.

© 2009, The Orlando Sentinel (Fla.).
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Pending home sales eased against a deteriorating economic backdrop but remain in a stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors^®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, slipped 0.7 percent to 88.9 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.5 in September, and is 1.0 percent below October 2007 when it was 89.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a review of the past year is instructive. “Despite the turmoil in the economy, the overall level of pending home sales has been remarkably stable over the past year, holding in a generally narrow range,” he said. “We did see a spike in August when mortgage conditions temporarily improved, which underscores two things – there is a pent-up demand, and access to safe, affordable mortgages will bring more buyers into the market.”

Conditions remain uneven around the country, but some areas that are showing healthy gains in pending home sales from a year ago include many Florida and California markets, Providence, R.I.; Lansing, Mich.; Oklahoma City; and Las Vegas. ²

The PHSI in the South jumped 7.8 percent to 95.9 in October but remains 2.9 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast the index rose 0.6 percent to 68.1 but is 14.1 percent below October 2007. The index in the Midwest declined 4.3 percent to 79.7 in October and is 6.8 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index fell 8.7 percent to 103.7 but is 17.4 percent higher than October 2007.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said he’s hopeful about considerations by the U.S. Treasury. “Efforts to bring down mortgage interest rates demonstrate a clear understanding of the role housing plays in stabilizing the economy,” McMillan said. “We’re very encouraged by all of the proposals getting serious consideration in Washington to help home buyers. More sales will stabilize home prices by bringing down inventory, and would lessen foreclosure pressure.”

Yun expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract through the first half of 2009, then stabilize and expand in latter part of the year – lifted by a home sales recovery. “Given the critical role of housing in an economic recovery, we’re confident sufficient stimulus will be offered to bring more buyers to the market,” he said.

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast to total 4.96 million this year, and then increase to 5.19 million in 2009 and 5.55 million in 2010.

New-home sales for 2008 should total 486,000 this year, decline to 393,000 in 2009 and then grow to 446,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are projected at 934,000 units in 2008 and 731,000 next year before rising to 772,000 in 2010.

“Price projections are challenging in an environment with so many variables and divergent local conditions,” Yun said. “The home price correction to date has brought prices in line with fundamentals, but buyer pessimism could cause prices to overshoot downward, resulting in further economic deterioration.”

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably decline to 5.6 percent in the first quarter, rise slowly to 6.0 percent by the end of 2009, and average 6.2 percent in 2010. NAR’s housing affordability index is likely to remain quite favorable, averaging 138 in 2009.

The unemployment rate is estimated at 7.2 percent in the first quarter, rising to 8.3 percent by the end of 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 0.7 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is expected to grow 1.5 percent in 2009.

NOVEMBER 2008 REDDING SALES INFORMATION

In the past few days both the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released home price info for Q3 2008.

The FHFA reports Redding depreciating 6.63% in Q3 2008 and 14.07% for the past year.  This is fairly consistent with information summarized from MLS.

There were 73 home sales in Redding in November 2008 per Shasta MLS with an average price/SF of $151.76.

The average sales price, average price/SF and number of home sales in Redding over the last five quarters were:                
                        
                      
     ;                    

                       
There is still positive news out there:

1. There were more sales in Redding in Q3 2008 than Q3 2007.
2. There have been more sales in Redding in Q4 2008 than through the same date in Q4 2007.
3. Home prices in Redding, while dropping this past year, are up 31.14% over the past five years.  Real estate is always a good long-term investment.
4. FHA has come out with several new programs to help both first-time buyers and struggling mortgage holders.
5. Home prices are now much more affordable.

To quote Warren Buffett, " . . . be greedy when others are fearful."  It doesn't get much scarier than the California real estate market this past year -- buying opportunities abound.

The government and economists finally figured out that we're in a recession -- and that it started one year ago.  My guess is that when our real estate market finally hits bottom, it will probably take those same parties another year to realize that also.

Please consider our office for your client's appraisal needs.  We also provide appraisal services for divorce and estate situations.  Should you have a client that fits either of those needs, please keep us in mind. 

Thank you,

Bob Sprenkel
Sprenkel Appraisals
P.O. Box 493818
Redding, CA 96049
(530) 243-9841 Phone
(530) 243-9987 Fax
sprenkelappraisals@sbcglobal.net
www.sprenkelappraisals.com